Election 2012: The Other Campaigns

Much has been made of the upcoming presidential election of late; the constantly changing Republican primary, President Obama's fundraisers, etc.  It's easy to forget that there are also 435 House seats, 33 Senate seats, 12 Governorships, and countless state and local offices up for grabs. 

Presidential campaigns are sexy -- vast, opulent, glamorous.  Other campaigns are not, but they are as important if not more important in American governance and the future of our nation. 

In the 2010 election cycle, Republicans made significant gains in both the House of Representatives, where they now enjoy a 242-192 majority, and the Senate, where they remain in the minority 53-47.  It was an overwhelming swell of conservative sentiment and it has continued throughout the last year and a half.  Republicans are poised to pick up more seats in Congress in 2012, depending somewhat on the presidential nominee.

Romney's recent electoral challenges and malapropisms aside, he is still viewed by the majority in the establishment and media as the most electable candidate.  Republican leaders worry that the nomination of Rick Santorum or Newt Gingrich would have a negative impact on the Party's chances in the House and Senate elections.

That being said, the statistics are on the Republicans' side.  They will almost certainly maintain control of the House of Representatives.  The process of redistricting, where state legislatures -- dominated by one party or the other -- redraw congressional districts to benefit their political party, has vastly reduced the number of contested House races.   This process has made violent swings in House elections -- such as the Republican surge in 2010 where the GOP picked up 63 seats -- exceedingly rare.  Still, elections in districts such as the Arizona 5th, Colorado 6th, Illinois 11th, Iowa 3rd, and Maryland 6th will be closely watched. 

On the Senate side, there are 33 seats up for grabs, 23 of which are Democrats or Independents who caucus with the Democrats (Connecticut and Vermont).  Of the 10 contests where Republicans currently hold the seat, six are safe GOP holds, three are likely GOP holds, and only one -- Nevada -- is considered a tossup. 

Republicans will most likely win all the races in which they are the incumbent, with the possible exception of Nevada, as well as Nebraska, where Democrat Ben Nelson is retiring and conservative sentiment is strong.  This means that any further victories would be a net gain in Senate seats and bring Republicans closer to the majority. 

Control of the Senate will thus come down to seven tossup races: Massachusetts, Missouri, Montana, Nevada, New Mexico, Virginia, and Wisconsin.  Democrats must win five of these races to maintain control of the Senate, while Republicans can gain control by winning four. 

There are two potential pickups for the GOP bringing their magic number to two.  In Wisconsin, former Republican governor Tommy Thompson has led Congresswoman Tammy Baldwin consistently in the polls, albeit by a fairly slim margin.  The same goes for Montana Republican Congressman Denny Rehberg against incumbent Democrat Jon Tester. 

The polls in Massachusetts, Virginia, Missouri, and Nevada -- all tossups -- are impossible to predict. 

The two most prominent of these races are Massachusetts and Virginia where four very strong and high-profile candidates are pitted against each other.  The Massachusetts race will likely become one of the most expensive Senate campaigns in American history.  Republican incumbent Scott Brown, who won a special election in 2009 to fill Ted Kennedy's open seat, is being challenged by Harvard Economist Elizabeth Warren.  One recent poll showed Brown with a seven-point advantage while another showed Warren with a three-point advantage. 

In Virginia, where Democrat Jim Webb is retiring, former Republican Governor George Allen is matched up against former Democrat Governor and DNC Chairman Tim Kaine.  The proximity to Washington, DC, and the stature of the two candidates has made this campaign a high-profile cash cow.  Polls have been consistently inconsistent; some have Kaine with a slight lead, some Allen. 

In general, Republicans are in a solid position to maintain control of the House while picking up seats in the Senate and possibly gaining a majority there.  Political campaigns are fickle, and much may and probably will change between now and then.  But the hope in Republican circles remains.